Costos directos y calidad de vida de los pacientes con glaucoma en Paraguay / Direct costs and quality of life of patients with glaucoma in Paraguay

Introducción:El glaucoma constituyeun problema de salud pública por su alta prevalencia, los costos directos y la calidad de vida deteriorada de los pacientes que lo sufre. Objetivo:Determinar los costos directos y calidad de vida de los pacientes adultos con glaucoma atendidos en la Clínica Central de la Fundación Visión de noviembre 2022 a febrero 2023. Material y métodos:estudio observacional, descriptivo, corte transversal que incluyó pacientes con diagnóstico de glaucoma por muestreo por conveniencia. Resultados:Se incluyeron 140 pacientes entre 29 y 90 años, 52,9% femenino, 43,6% primaria incompleta, 32,1% desempleado. El tratamiento médico se realizó en el 81%, laser en 42% y procedimiento quirúrgico en 32%. Se informó un gasto promedio anual de 3.639.800gs ($ 503.93) por paciente. El estado emocional afectado se informó en el 35,7% de los pacientes, y calidad de vida deteriorada en el 48,6%; el 55% de los pacientes tiene dependencia para sus cuidados personales. Conclusión:El glaucoma implica grandes costos directos debido al tratamiento, además los pacientes tienen deterioro de la calidad de vida.Palabras Clave:glaucoma; costos de la atención en salud; distrés psicológico; calidad de vida

Introduction.Glaucoma is still a public health problem due to its high prevalence, the socioeconomic impact it entails for the patient who suffers from it, which decreases the quality of life. Objective:To determine the direct costs and quality of life of adult patients treated WITH glaucoma in the Fundación Visión Central Clinic from November 2022 to February 2023. Material and methods:observational, descriptive, cross-sectional study that included patients diagnosed with glaucoma by sampling by convenience. Results:140 patients between 29 and 90 years old were included, 52.9% female, 43.6% incomplete primary education, 32.1% unemployed. Medical treatment was performed in 81%, laser in 42% and surgical procedure in 32%. An average annual expense of 3,639,800gs ($503.93) per patient was reported. Emotional affectation was reported in 35.7% of the patients, and 43.5% deteriorated quality of life; 55% of the patients has dependency on personal care. Conclusion:Glaucoma involves large direct costs, due to treatment, in addition patients have deterioration in the quality of life.Key words:glaucoma; health care costs;psychological distress; quality of life

A pandemia de COVID-19 e o seu impacto à saúde planetária / The COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on planetary health

A pandemia de COVID-19 deu ao mundo uma imagem clara do que é uma crise multidimensional em escala planetária, revelando o papel central que ocupa o setor de saúde e as profundas desigualdades no acesso aos cuidados em saúde que existem entre os diferentes países, e dentro de cada um deles. Melhorar os efeitos ambientais do setor e reduzir as emissões de gases de efeito estufa pode não apenas melhorar a saúde de todos, mas também reduzir os custos com os cuidados em saúde. O setor de saúde de cada país libera direta e indiretamente gases de efeito estufa ao fornecer seus serviços e ao comprar produtos, serviços e tecnologias em uma cadeia de fornecimento de carbono intensivo. Educar os profissionais de saúde mais profundamente sobre os efeitos das mudanças climáticas pode levar a práticas clínicas mais sustentáveis, melhorando os resultados para os pacientes e fornecendo um impulso substancial para aumentar os esforços para reduzir as emissões de carbono. O setor da saúde deve assumir a responsabilidade por sua pegada climática respondendo à crescente emergência climática, não apenas prestando assistência aos doentes, feridos ou moribundos como resultado da crise climática e suas causas, mas também fazendo a prevenção primária e reduzindo drasticamente suas próprias emissões.

The COVID-19 pandemic has painted a clear picture of what a multidimensional planetary crisis is, revealing the central role played by the health sector and the deep inequalities in access to health care that exist between and within each country. Decreasing the environmental effects of the health sector and reducing greenhouse gas emission may not only improve people's health, but also reduce health care costs. The health care sectors around the world directly and indirectly release greenhouse gases by providing their services and purchasing products, services, and technologies within a carbon-intensive supply chain. Further educating health care professionals about the effects of climate change may lead to more sustainable clinical practices, improving patient outcomes and providing substantial impetus to increased efforts to reduce carbon emission. The health sector must take responsibility for its climate footprint by responding to the growing climate emergency not only by assisting the sick, injured, or dying from the climate crisis, but also by doing primary prevention and drastically reducing its own carbon emission.

Modelo de estimación de costos de atención integral para enfermedades trasmisibles / Comprehensive care cost estimation model for communicable diseases

Los costos de atención integral para enfermedades trasmisibles, en el régimen subsidiado o contributivo indirecto del sistema de salud del Perú., son la base para la formulación de políticas publicas para garantizar el derecho a la salud, por esto, mediante un arreglo metodologico, se construyo un modelo de estimación de costos de atención integral para enfermedades trasmisibles, el cual, es verificación y validación por expertos. Primero se priorizaron dengue, malaria, tuberculosis y enfermedad diarreica aguda como grupos de diagnósticos, de acuerdo a aspectos demográficos, determinantes sociales, indicadores de mortalidad y morbilidad. Sucesivamente se construye el modelo teorico "Costo Atención Integral (CAI) = Æ© C (Capital)+ CVI (Costo variable indireccto) + CVD (Costo variable direccto) +CC (Costo por contingencia) + CP/S (Costo paciente/sociedad), obteniendo valores estimados de 3,66+0,40 y 3,71+0,34 respectivamente para costos totales; mientras que el costo paciente/sociedad arrojaron valores de 2,98+0,49 de verificación y validación de 2,68+0,32; estimaciones indicativas que los componentes del sistema propuesto pesquisan los costos reales de los procesos de atención se salud del régimen sidsidiario, es decir alta adecuación de los procesos, utilidad de insumos y materiales, uso eficiente en los diferentes entornos del sistema; como una herramienta crucial de información para la comparación e identificación de las intervenciones de tipo preventivo más costo-efectivas(AU)

The costs of comprehensive care for communicable diseases, in the subsidized or indirect contributory regimen of the Peruvian health system, are the basis for the formulation of public policies to guarantee the right to health, for this reason, through a methodological arrangement, it was built a comprehensive care cost estimation model for communicable diseases, which is verified and validated by experts. First, dengue, malaria, tuberculosis and acute diarrheal disease were prioritized as diagnostic groups, according to demographic aspects, social determinants, mortality and morbidity indicators. Successively, the theoretical model "Comprehensive Care Cost (CCI) = Æ© C (Capital) + IVC (Indirect variable cost) + DVC (Direct variable cost) + CC (Contingency cost) + P/SC (Patient/society cost) is built , obtaining estimated values of 3.66+0.40 and 3.71+0.34 respectively for total costs; while the patient/society cost yielded values of 2.98+0.49 for verification and validation of 2.68+0.32; indicative estimates that the components of the proposed system investigate the real costs of the health care processes of the subsidiary regime, that is to say, high adequacy of the processes, usefulness of supplies and materials, efficient use in the different environments of the system; as a crucial information tool for the comparison and identification of the most cost-effective preventive interventions(AU)

Impacto económico de los egresos hospitalarios asociados a cáncer gástrico en las regiones del Maule, La Araucanía y Aysén durante los años 2015-2020 / Economic impact of hospital discharges associated with gastric cancer in del Maule, La Araucanía and Aysén regions during years 2015-2020

Introduction: Gastric cancer (GC) represents one of the highest incidences in the world and in Chile, registering one of the highest mortality rates with a significant economic impact. Objective: Examine the economic expenditure (EE) associated with bed-days due to GC in patients older than 45 years according to the year of the hospital discharge, during the years 2015-2020 in the regions of Maule, La Araucanía, and Aysén del General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo. Material y methods: Our ecological study is focused on a sample of patients who registered a discharge due to GC was applied (n=3,391). Data extraction was performed from the Department of Statistics and Health Information. Results: During the period of analysis, was recorded an expense of $508,995,025, with 2017 being the year with the highest value of $111,321,220. The largest EE was concentrated in La Araucanía with $265,802,005 and the smallest in Aysén with $23,646,555. Discussion: There is a genetic predisposition to GC in the Mapuche population, which resides in southern Chile. In addition, the lower EE is associated with the female sex because estrogens interfere in processes that are related to a lower predisposition for the development of GC. It is recommended to extend the study to other regions of Chile in order to extrapolate the results to the national level and to enrich the available literature.

Introducción: El cáncer gástrico (CG) representa una de las mayores incidencias en el mundo y en Chile, registrando una de las tasas más altas de mortalidad con un impacto económico importante. Objetivo: Examinar el gasto económico (GE) asociados a días-cama por CG en pacientes mayores a 45 años según año de egreso hospitalario, durante los años 2015-2020 en las regiones del Maule, La Araucanía y Aysén del General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo. Materiales y métodos: Se aplicó un estudio ecológico focalizado en una muestra de pacientes que registran un egreso a causa de CG (n=3.391). La extracción de datos se realizó a partir del Departamento de Estadística e Información de Salud. Resultados: En el período se registró un gasto de $508.995.025, siendo el año 2017 el que presentó el mayor con un valor de $111.321.220. El mayor GE se concentró en La Araucanía con $265.802.005 y el menor en Aysén con $23.646.555. Discusión: Existe una mayor predisposición genética al CG en la población mapuche residente en el sur de Chile y el menor GE se asocia al sexo femenino debido a que los estrógenos interfieren en procesos que se relacionan con una menor predisposición para el desarrollo de CG. Se recomienda ampliar el estudio a otras regiones de Chile para poder extrapolar los resultados a nivel nacional y enriquecer la literatura disponible.

The politics of healthy ageing: myths and realities

Research from the European Observatory’s Economics of Health and Active Ageing series finds overwhelmingly that population ageing is not a major problem for the sustainability of health care systems or societies. So why is it so often treated as a threat? This brief draws on a book presenting and synthesizing the international evidence on this question. It first identifies three myths that are widely influential in debates about ageing. The myths are that ageing societies are fiscally unsustainable, that older people prefer better benefits for themselves at the expense of younger people, and that politicians give older people what they want – benefits for older people at the expense of younger generations. If these myths were true, there would indeed be a major crisis in the increasing number of ageing societies. The brief and research discussed in it find that none of these three myths is true. The brief then reviews evidence on the possibility of ‘win–win’ politics that produce good outcomes for people of all ages. In terms of policy design, this means focusing on life-course policies. Life-course approaches have extensive implications for policy because they suggest ways to make policies that invest for the future at every stage of people’s lives. They also have distinctive politics because they ask for political leaders, interests and advocates to form coalitions among different groups that mutually benefit from the same policies. The brief concludes with lessons on ways to develop political coalitions in support of life-course policies.

Validación predictiva de un método de clasificación funcional en adultos mayores

[RESUMEN]. Objetivo. Evaluar la validez predictiva de un método de clasificación funcional (CF) sobre el uso de los servicios de urgencias y hospitalización, mortalidad y costos de la atención en salud en adultos mayores. Métodos. Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo que incluyó 2 168 adultos mayores en un programa de atención de las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) en Medellín (Colombia). Los pacientes fueron estratificados según un método de CF con base en el estado funcional, presencia de factores de riesgo y control de la comorbilidad. Durante un año de seguimiento, se evaluó la validez predictiva de la CF sobre los desenlaces estudiados; se midieron la discriminación y la calibración con el estadístico-C y de Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L), respectivamente. Resultados. El promedio de edad fue 74,6 ± 7,9 años; el 40,8% (n = 884) fueron hombres y 7,7% (n = 168) murieron. El riesgo de muerte (razón de posibilidades [OR, por su sigla en inglés]: 1,767; 3,411; 8,525), hospitalización (OR: 1,397; 2,172; 3,540) y un costo elevado de la atención en salud (OR: 1,703; 2,369; 5,073) aumentaron en la medida que hubo un deterioro en la CF, clases 2B, 3 y 4, respectivamente. El modelo predictivo para el desenlace muerte mostró una buena capacidad de discriminación (estadístico-C = 0,721) y calibración (estadístico de H-L = 10,200; P = 0,251). Conclusión. Existe una relación de dosis y respuesta entre el deterioro de la CF y un riesgo más elevado de muerte, hospitalización y costo elevado. La CF tiene validez predictiva para la tasa de mortalidad y podría utilizarse para la estratificación de adultos mayores en programas de atención de las ECNT con miras a dirigir las acciones de intervención.

[ABSTRACT]. Objective. Evaluate the predictive validity of a functional classification (FC) method for the use of emergency services and hospitalization, mortality, and health care costs among older adults. Methods. Retrospective cohort study that included 2 168 older adults in a chronic noncommunicable disease (CNCD) care program in Medellin, Colombia. Patients were stratified according to a FC method based on functional status, presence of risk factors, and control of comorbidity. During one year of follow-up, the predictive validity of the FC method was assessed for the studied outcomes. Discrimination and calibration were measured with the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, respectively. Results. The average age was 74.6 ± 7.9 years; 40.8% (n = 884) were men and 7.7% (n = 168) died. The risk of death (odds ratio [OR]: 1.767; 3.411; 8.525), hospitalization (OR: 1.397; 2.172; 3.540) and high cost of health care (OR: 1.703; 2.369; 5.073) increased in proportion to a deterioration in functional classification (classes 2B, 3, and 4, respectively). The predictive model for the outcome of death showed good capacity for discrimination (C-statistic = 0.721) and calibration (HL statistic 10.200; P = 0.251). Conclusion. There is a dose-response relationship between deterioration in FC and a higher risk of death, hospitalization, and high cost. FC has predictive validity for the mortality rate and could be used to stratify older adults in CNCD care programs with a view to guiding interventions.

[RESUMO]. Objetivo. Avaliar a validade preditiva de um método de classificação funcional (CF) para a utilização de serviços de emergência e internação hospitalar, mortalidade e custos da atenção de saúde em idosos. Métodos. Estudo de coorte retrospectivo com 2 168 idosos atendidos em um programa de atenção de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) em Medellín, Colômbia. Um método de CF foi usado para estratificar os participantes segundo o estado funcional, presença de fatores de risco e controle de comorbidades. No período de acompanhamento de um ano, a validade preditiva da CF foi avaliada para os desfechos de interesse. A capacidade discriminatória (estatística C) e a calibração (teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow [H-L]) do modelo foram avaliadas. Resultados. A média de idade dos participantes do estudo foi 74,6 ± 7,9 anos, 40,8% (n = 884) eram do sexo masculino e 7,7% (n = 168) vieram a óbito. Houve aumento do risco de óbito (odds ratio [OR] 1,767; 3,411–8,525), internação hospitalar (OR 1,397; 2,172-3,540) e custo elevado da atenção de saúde (OR 1,703; 2,369–5,073) com o declínio funcional – classes funcionais 2B, 3 e 4, respectivamente. O modelo preditivo para o desfecho de óbito demonstrou boa capacidade discriminatória (estatística C = 0,721) e calibração (estatística H-L = 10,200; P = 0,251). Conclusão. Há uma relação de dose-resposta entre o declínio da CF e risco maior de óbito, internação hospitalar e custo elevado da atenção. A CF tem validade preditiva para a taxa de mortalidade e poderia ser utilizada na estratificação de idosos em programas de atenção de DCNT para ajudar a direcionar as medidas de intervenção.

Medication discrepancies in a hospital in Southern Brazil: the importance of medication reconciliation for patient safety

Medication discrepancies are of great concern in hospitals because they pose risks to patients and increase health care costs. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of inconsistent medication prescriptions to adult patients admitted to a hospital in southern Santa Catarina, Brazil. This was a patient safety study on patients recruited between November 2015 and June 2016. The participants were interviewed and had their medical records reviewed. Discrepant medications were considered those that did not match between the list of medicines taken at home and the prescribed drugs for treatment in a hospital setting. Of the 394 patients included, 98.5% took continuous-use medications at home, with an average of 5.5 medications per patient. Discrepancies totaled 80.2%, The independent variables associated with the discrepancies were systemic arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, vascular disease, number of medications taken at home, and poor documentation of the medications in the medical record. Findings from this study allowed us to conclude there was a high rate of prescription medication misuse. Medication reconciliation is crucial in reducing these errors. Pharmacists can help reduce these medication-related errors and the associated risks and complications.

Custo e efetividade de modalidades de serviços de atenção domiciliar para a população idosa: revisão integrativa da literatura / Cost and effectiveness of home care services modalities for the older population: integrative literature review / Costo y efectividad de las modalidades de servicios de atención domiciliaria para la población mayor: revisión integradora de la literatura

RESUMO Objetivo: analisar as modalidades de serviços de AD direcionadas ao público idoso, identificando a oferta de serviços no domicílio e seus resultados referentes aos custos e a efetividade. Método: revisão da literatura realizada nas bases de dados Literatura Latino-americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS) e Indice Bibliográico Español en Ciencias de la Salud (IBECS) via Biblioteca Virtual da Saúde (BVS), Medline via Pubmed, Scopus, Web of science, Cumulative Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) e Cochrane. Foram incluídos 16 estudos publicados no período de 2008 a 2017, submetidos à análise de conteúdo. Resultados: a análise evidenciou que há diferentes modalidades de serviços que podem ser ofertados para a população idosa, incluindo o cuidado no domicílio. As modalidades identificadas foram serviços de visitas domiciliares, internação domiciliar; serviços institucionais de longa permanência; serviços de suporte de longo prazo que associam cuidado no domicílio e cuidado comunitário e serviços institucionais de transição de cuidado. Essas modalidades variaram segundo as formas de organização, público-alvo, resultados alcançados e custos associados. Os serviços mais custo-efetivos para os idosos foram os que incluem intervenção no domicílio tanto para condições agudas quanto crônicas; internação domiciliar; serviços combinados de intervenção domiciliar e comunitária, instituições de transição de cuidado e instituições de longa permanência. Conclusão: a atenção domiciliar, especialmente aquelas que ofertam intervenções no domicílio, mostrou-se com melhores resultados capazes de reduzir os custos gerais para os sistemas de saúde e pode ser efetiva na medida em que responde às demandas por cuidados requeridas pelos idosos.

RESUMEN Objetivo: analizar las modalidades de los servicios de AD dirigidos al público anciano, identificando la oferta de servicios a domicilio y sus resultados en cuanto a costos y efectividad. Método: revisión de la literatura realizada en las bases de datos de Literatura Latinoamericana y Caribeña en Ciencias de la Salud (LILACS) e Índice Bibliográfico Español en Ciencias de la Salud (IBECS) vía Biblioteca Virtual en Salud (BVS), Medline vía Pubmed, Scopus, Web of science, Cumulative Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL (CINAHL) y Cochrane. Se incluyeron 16 estudios publicados de 2008 a 2017, sometidos a análisis de contenido. Resultados: el análisis mostró que existen diferentes tipos de servicios que se pueden ofrecer a la población anciana, incluida la atención domiciliaria. Las modalidades identificadas fueron servicios de visitas domiciliarias, atención domiciliaria; servicios institucionales a largo plazo; servicios de apoyo a largo plazo que combinan atención domiciliaria y atención comunitaria, y servicios de transición de atención institucional. Estas modalidades variaron según las formas de organización, público objetivo, resultados obtenidos y costos asociados. Los servicios más rentables para los ancianos fueron los que incluían intervención domiciliaria tanto para enfermedades agudas como crónicas; cuidados en el hogar; servicios combinados de intervención en el hogar y la comunidad, instituciones de atención de transición e instalaciones de atención a largo plazo. Conclusión: la atención domiciliaria, especialmente aquellos que ofrecen intervenciones en el hogar, ha demostrado tener mejores resultados capaces de reducir los costos globales para los sistemas de salud y puede ser eficaz en la medida en que responda a las demandas de atención que requieren las personas mayores.

ABSTRACT Objective: to analyze the modalities of AD services aimed at the older people, identifying the offer of services at home and its results regarding costs and effectiveness. Method: literature review carried out in the databases of Literatura Latino-americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (LILACS) and Indice Bibliográico Español en Ciencias de la Salud (IBECS) via Biblioteca Virtual da Saúde (BVS), Medline via Pubmed, Scopus, Web of science, Cumulative Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) and Cochrane. Sixteen studies published from 2008 to 2017 were included and submitted to content analysis. Results: the analysis showed that there are different types of services that can be offered to the older population, including home care. The modalities identified were home visiting services, home hospitalization; long-term institutional services; long-term support services that combine home and community care, and institutional care transition services. These modalities varied according to the forms of organization, target audience, results achieved, and associated costs. The most cost-effective services for the older adults were those that included home intervention for both acute and chronic conditions; home care; combined home and community intervention services, transitional care institutions, and long-term care facilities. Conclusion: home care, especially those that offer interventions at home, showed better results capable of reducing overall costs for health systems and can be effective as it responds to the demands for care required by older people.

Validación predictiva de un método de clasificación funcional en adultos mayores / Predictive validity of a functional classification method in older adults / Validação preditiva de método de classificação funcional em idosos

RESUMEN Objetivo. Evaluar la validez predictiva de un método de clasificación funcional (CF) sobre el uso de los servicios de urgencias y hospitalización, mortalidad y costos de la atención en salud en adultos mayores. Métodos. Estudio de cohorte retrospectivo que incluyó 2 168 adultos mayores en un programa de atención de las enfermedades crónicas no transmisibles (ECNT) en Medellín (Colombia). Los pacientes fueron estratificados según un método de CF con base en el estado funcional, presencia de factores de riesgo y control de la comorbilidad. Durante un año de seguimiento, se evaluó la validez predictiva de la CF sobre los desenlaces estudiados; se midieron la discriminación y la calibración con el estadístico-C y de Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L), respectivamente. Resultados. El promedio de edad fue 74,6 ± 7,9 años; el 40,8% (n = 884) fueron hombres y 7,7% (n = 168) murieron. El riesgo de muerte (razón de posibilidades [OR, por su sigla en inglés]: 1,767; 3,411; 8,525), hospitalización (OR: 1,397; 2,172; 3,540) y un costo elevado de la atención en salud (OR: 1,703; 2,369; 5,073) aumentaron en la medida que hubo un deterioro en la CF, clases 2B, 3 y 4, respectivamente. El modelo predictivo para el desenlace muerte mostró una buena capacidad de discriminación (estadístico-C = 0,721) y calibración (estadístico de H-L = 10,200; P = 0,251). Conclusión. Existe una relación de dosis y respuesta entre el deterioro de la CF y un riesgo más elevado de muerte, hospitalización y costo elevado. La CF tiene validez predictiva para la tasa de mortalidad y podría utilizarse para la estratificación de adultos mayores en programas de atención de las ECNT con miras a dirigir las acciones de intervención.

ABSTRACT Objective. Evaluate the predictive validity of a functional classification (FC) method for the use of emergency services and hospitalization, mortality, and health care costs among older adults. Methods. Retrospective cohort study that included 2 168 older adults in a chronic noncommunicable disease (CNCD) care program in Medellin, Colombia. Patients were stratified according to a FC method based on functional status, presence of risk factors, and control of comorbidity. During one year of follow-up, the predictive validity of the FC method was assessed for the studied outcomes. Discrimination and calibration were measured with the C-statistic and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test, respectively. Results. The average age was 74.6 ± 7.9 years; 40.8% (n = 884) were men and 7.7% (n = 168) died. The risk of death (odds ratio [OR]: 1.767; 3.411; 8.525), hospitalization (OR: 1.397; 2.172; 3.540) and high cost of health care (OR: 1.703; 2.369; 5.073) increased in proportion to a deterioration in functional classification (classes 2B, 3, and 4, respectively). The predictive model for the outcome of death showed good capacity for discrimination (C-statistic = 0.721) and calibration (HL statistic 10.200; P = 0.251). Conclusion. There is a dose-response relationship between deterioration in FC and a higher risk of death, hospitalization, and high cost. FC has predictive validity for the mortality rate and could be used to stratify older adults in CNCD care programs with a view to guiding interventions.

RESUMO Objetivo. Avaliar a validade preditiva de um método de classificação funcional (CF) para a utilização de serviços de emergência e internação hospitalar, mortalidade e custos da atenção de saúde em idosos. Métodos. Estudo de coorte retrospectivo com 2 168 idosos atendidos em um programa de atenção de doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) em Medellín, Colômbia. Um método de CF foi usado para estratificar os participantes segundo o estado funcional, presença de fatores de risco e controle de comorbidades. No período de acompanhamento de um ano, a validade preditiva da CF foi avaliada para os desfechos de interesse. A capacidade discriminatória (estatística C) e a calibração (teste de Hosmer-Lemeshow [H-L]) do modelo foram avaliadas. Resultados. A média de idade dos participantes do estudo foi 74,6 ± 7,9 anos, 40,8% (n = 884) eram do sexo masculino e 7,7% (n = 168) vieram a óbito. Houve aumento do risco de óbito (odds ratio [OR] 1,767; 3,411-8,525), internação hospitalar (OR 1,397; 2,172-3,540) e custo elevado da atenção de saúde (OR 1,703; 2,369-5,073) com o declínio funcional - classes funcionais 2B, 3 e 4, respectivamente. O modelo preditivo para o desfecho de óbito demonstrou boa capacidade discriminatória (estatística C = 0,721) e calibração (estatística H-L = 10,200; P = 0,251). Conclusão. Há uma relação de dose-resposta entre o declínio da CF e risco maior de óbito, internação hospitalar e custo elevado da atenção. A CF tem validade preditiva para a taxa de mortalidade e poderia ser utilizada na estratificação de idosos em programas de atenção de DCNT para ajudar a direcionar as medidas de intervenção.

Health and social care near the end of life: can policies reduce costs and improve outcomes?

This brief reviews the evidence on health and social care needs and expenditures at the end of life. End of life costs are the main reason for high per person spending levels observed at older ages in many European countries. However, there is huge variation between individuals, with estimates suggesting that just 10% of people near the end of life are responsible for over 60% of total end of life health and social care expenditures. High-cost individuals tend to be frail people with multiple chronic illnesses who use considerable hospital and social care services.In most European countries, there will be large increases in annual deaths in the coming years as the ‘baby boom’ generation ages and improved survival ultimately leads to more deaths each year. This will inevitably lead to growth in end of life needs and, ultimately, spending levels. However, there are a number of strategies available to address these challenges. Some end of life needs can be reduced with more active public health measures and active rehabilitation, much of which can be very cost-effective. More active assessment of care needs can also significantly improve the experiences of patients and families, reduce unnecessary tests and interventions, will not shorten survival, and can help to limit the growth in costs.

Станет ли старение населения концом социального государства? Обзор фактических данных и варианты политики

Данный краткий обзор представляет общую информацию и является введением в серию обзоров «Экономика здорового и активного старения». В нем рассматриваются основные фактические данные о расходах на здравоохранение и долгосрочный уход, связанных со старением, с тем чтобы лучше понять ожидаемое увеличение затрат в связи с изменением возрастного состава населения. В то же время в данном кратком обзоре обсуждается, каким образом пожилые люди могут вносить и вносят значимый вклад как в экономическом, так и в социальном плане, особенно если они способны оставаться здоровыми и активными в пожилом возрасте, формируя так называемую «серебряную экономику». В заключение данного обзора рассматриваются отдельные меры политики, которые продемонстрировали своюдейственность в поддержании здоровья и активного долголетия пожилых людей, либо могут иным образом укреплять устойчивые системы ухода в более широком контексте старения населения.

Устойчивое финансирование здравоохранения в условиях старения населения: Результаты применения различных механизмов увеличения доходов бюджета и вариантов политики

В предлагаемом кратком обзоре рассматриваются вопросы финансирования систем здравоохранения и долгосрочного ухода, а также освещаются вопросы потенциального влияния изменений в возрастной структуре населения на способность обеспечивать достаточные и стабильные бюджетные поступления из общих источников финансирования. Мы вводим новый методологический подход для моделирования воздействия старения населения на сбор доходов в бюджет от подоходного налога (включая налоги на прибыль и прирост капитала), налогов на товары и услуги, имущественных налогов и социальных отчислений. Далее рассматриваются варианты политики, направленные на устранение дефицита поступлений, который может возникнуть в результате старения населения. Подобные связанные с мерами политики выводы актуальны как для стран с большой долей стареющего населения, так и для стран, переживающих переходный период в возрастной структуре населения. Предлагаемый краткий обзор подготовлен совместно с Центром ВОЗ по развитию здравоохранения в г. Кобе, Япония.